VIVO IPL 2018 - time to eat crow!!

Apropos my previous post on this year's IPL where I crystal gazed (or so I thought)! Turns out , so far, I have been partially right and largely wrong!! This is how I am reading the IPL now!!
1. Mumbai will be lucky not to end up at the bottom of the IPL pile (Luck and DD might help them actually).
2. DD will be in the bottom 2 (that's where I am slightly right).
3. RCB has some scope of making it to the top 5 (DD and MI will help keep them off the bottom rungs), but very little of making it to the top 4.
4. CSK and SRH will be in the top 4.
5. KXIP will not fare as badly as I thought - they are on top and are likely to finish on top (Gayle must be credited for giving them wings).
6. I guess between KKR and RR, it will be former that rounds off the top 4.

Hopefully, I am reading it better now....though, I am also hoping that I am horribly wrong with my Mumbai prediction and that they replace KKR in the top 4!

Here's to miracles....

VIVO IPL 2018 - the fun begins

So, finally, the biggest cricketing event of any year (even if it is a World Cup year) has begun! Biggest in terms of excitement, money , sponsorships etc. etc - the VIVO IPL. The English counties are figuring out how to stem the flow of players , but will in all probability not find a solution.
Anyway, back to IPL. 5 matches played so far and some trends are beginning to make themselves evident:

1. Chase to win - even if the chase is looking improbable to pull off! So far, teams have won the toss, elected to field and won! The pattern was the same for almost half of IPL 2017 , after which suddenly, teams chasing started to lose!! Wonder if it will be the same this year. CSK won the inaugural match chasing , when it seemed impossible (Bravo won the day). Again, they won yesterday against KKR when they had to chase 203. Which brings me to the second point.
2. CSK have a very very very good chance of winning - they are higher on average age (several players in their 30s, more than any other team), but they have matchwinners.
3. MI, SRH, KKR and maybe KXIP will be the other teams who have a chance of making it to the top 4. Actually KXIP might be replaced by DD too.
4. RCB and RR will in all probability not be in the top 4. I still have some hopes from RR, but practically none from RCB (it's a bit of a tragedy that the first ever IPL match I am watching at a stadium will be between the two this year).
5. RCB has great batsmen at the top, but has both middle order and bowling problems; RR need someone like Klassen in the team.
6. Of all the teams, SRH continues to have the best bowlers. Not sure how well their batting can perform when needed (Dhawan and Williamson are good, but still..).

But hey, despite CSK having the best chance to win, as a diehard MI fan, lets hope Sharmaji ka beta walks away with the trophy this year too.

#SandpaperGate !

2 days - great matches were played (SA vs Aus, Eng vs NZ, Af vs WI and Eng(W) vs Ind (W) ) and yet, one event has taken the attention of the world away from events on the pitch, to events off it!
The 3rd Test in the Australia tour of SA was shaping up to be a great encounter - Dean Elgar refused to bow to the Aussie pressure on his way to 141 not out, the Aussie tail fought hard to move Australia close to the SA total and in the third innings, Markram, ABD and Vernon Philander were doing their best to ensure that the SA lead stretched. In the middle of all that - Cameron Bancroft was caught using some tape or sandpaper to rough up the ball, with the intention of getting swing!
The juniormost team member was caught tampering the ball! The cameras recorded everything, so there was no escape. The team came clean on what happened - Steven Smith saying that the 'leadership group' knew what was happening (the coach was above blame). The fact that this was premeditated and well planned, is the reason why there is so much furor since.
So, what's happened after #SandpaperGate on March 24?
1. Australia lost the test by a huge margin - they are in danger of losing their unbeaten record against SA in SA (post readmission).
2. Steven Smith and David Warner (the 'leadership group' ) was asked to step down for the rest of the Newlands test. They played under Tim Paine.
3. Steven Smith has received a 1 match suspension. He has also effectively been relieved of captaincy on a 'permanent' ish basis.
4. Steven Smith will no longer lead Rajasthan Royals in IPL; David Warner's captaincy at SRH is in doubt too!
5. The Aussies are ashamed of their cricket team, they have been labeled cheats .
6. There is talk of a lifetime ban! That sounds and seems harsh.

It is some ways tragic, that had this not been caught by the cameras, the Aussies would have gotten away with this stunt. But, in the era of constant camera surveillance (and stump mic recordings), what used to pass off as acceptable behavior earlier, is no longer so! Ball tampering in any form, was always cheating, and will continue to be. With the increased scrutiny overall, I guess players need to be trained on how to be at their best at all times , especially on the field.

See-saw battle - The Hero Nidahas T20 final

I didn't really think I would write about a T20 match (ok - writing about a T20 match is better than writing about an ODI), but yesterday's T20 match between India and Bangladesh was quite nail-biting in the way that only T20 matches can be.
Bangladesh reached 166 in 20 overs - thanks to a flourish in the last over (I guess 18 runs came off that over) and India began chasing 167 explosively. 24 in 2 overs, then India started losing wickets, the pitch slowed down, yet India were in the hunt. The required run rate was always in the vicinity of 8 and Ro 'HIT MAN' Sharma was batting. Suddenly Rohit got out, the other batsmen were struggling and India needed 34 of 18 balls. Still looked achievable as Manish Pandey was batting. I was flipping through channels and suddenly when I got back to the match, the scenario was 34 needed in 12!
This is how my ball-by-ball reactions were for these last 12 deliveries:

1. 34 needed off 12, Karthik comes in " Damn, how did India get to this. OK, wait, the Fizz bowled a wicket maiden!! In the 18th over! How could India let him do that? Ok, what will Karthik do now? No chance he can do that - Robel Hassan's bowling" Wham! DK hit a 6!
2. 28 off 11 - " Hmmm. That 6 might have been a fluke. DK is gonna get out now! India will lose" Wham! That's a boundary!! " Ok, looks like we are gonna go down with a fight"
3. 24 off 10 -"Maybe another 6? Maybe not!" Wham! "DK has really outdone himself!"
4. 18 off 9 -" better that DK hits 3 sixes and finished this off. No way we can repeat this in the 20th over! Damn! Dot ball?? Now?? ok. Let's see the next one"
5. 18 off 8 - "Let is be a six ...or a four...whatever, no single please. Ok, that's better, 2 runs. 16 to win then"
6. 16 off 7 - "Six! Six! Six.....Four! Ok, I thought Karthik believed in that Kotak line - why take 4 when 6 is more....anyway, 12 off the last over. Doable?"
7. 12 off 6 -" Oh damn! Shankar on strike!! Man, get the hell out of there. Just take a single and give strike.....no no, don't get run-out you idiot! Ok, keeper missed and all looks well. We got a free run , thanks to the wide"
8. 11 off 6 - " One more free delivery, maybe a no ball from Soumya Sarkar won't hurt! Anyway, that bugger Shankar had better take a single instead of acting like a hero...and Oh! WTF! dot ball?"
9. 11 off 5 -" Come on Shankar, single..single...Yesss! DK on strike"
10. 10 of 4 - " One six now ....then maybe they can take two 2's and keep some interest till last ball.....six..six....six...ONE! Why did DK take that single? He should have refused to run!"
11. 9 off 3 -"Shankar, for heaven's sake take a single. DK is in form. He will score 8 off 2...just give him strike." Bam! "Wow! Shankar hit a 4!"
12. 5 off 2 - " Lets finish this boys, lets finish this. One six and it should be done. Well played Bangladesh and all that - that Shakib is a real strategist...ok, Shankar, lets finish this" Wham! Up she goes." Oh! This won't carry - wait , wait - 2 fielders underneath it. They will drop it for sure! Ha!This has jumped from the fielders hands...what..wait, relay catch? Shankar is out! They should ban relay catches. Has DK crossed over?
13. 5 off 1 - " Has DK crossed over? even the Hindi commentators don't know! Wait is that him at the non-strikers end? Washington Sundar facing the last ball? We are goners...wait, DK is on strike. Ok, maybe we can have a tie...maybe something else....." Wham! A really flat shot" Six! Six! India has won! Whew - how the hell did DK pull it off! I wonder!

Really - which one's the No.1 Test team?

India came bask from a reasonably triumphant SA tour - we lost the Test series 1-2 (we won the last one), but won the ODI series 5-1 and the T20 series 2-1. Yes, The coach and captain have declared their intention very clearly , of winning the next Overseas Test series and have begun some level of planning and preparation. That's India, the No. 1 Test team. SA are No. 2 and Aus No. 3 in these rankings.
But are these rankings a reflection of reality? One look at the first Aus versus SA test (in SA right now) says otherwise. At the end of Day 3, Aus have a 400+ lead in the third innings of the match (having secured a 189 run lead in their first innings). SA's batting is looking worse than it did against India, so, chances of them winning are slim. This is the same SA team that made life difficult for India in SA, but looks worse off against Australia. The Aussies, mind you, were the only visiting team that gave India a scare in the Test series in India last year.
So, based on this, Aus is better than India (the recent Ashes performances have bolstered that) and India might just be better than SA. Hopefully, we will see a change in Test rankings soon.


P.S: I completely missed writing about the SL vs Bangladesh Test series. SL beat Bangladesh in Bangladesh - Rangana Herath , as usual , played a key role.

Onward to the next Overseas Test

India continued their tradition of not losing a Test at the Wanderers by beating SA in the third and final test. A hard fought match with a lot of pain for batsmen - watch this one from Bumrah to Elgar :
http://www.espn.in/video/clip?id=22223231
That moment almost caused the match to get called off. The game went on and India recorded one of their more famous recent Test victories. A few things to carry home (and abroad) from this series :
1. This team does indeed have a chance of giving us Test Series wins abroad. But the players need a lot more practice. That either means more practice matches or as someone had suggested (I think that was Boria Mazumdar) start the series with the T20 and ODI matches so that the team gets enough time to get acclimatized to the conditions.
2. Maybe Parthiv Patel should play a little more and open as well - the 2nd innings of the third test might not be an accurate sample, but it did change the pattern for India. And oh yes, Parthiv Patel held onto the chances (when keeping) in this one.
3. India has good fast bowling options; bowlers who can do well when there is seam, swing and bounce! So, it might not be easy for Eng and Aus to roll over this team.
4. Lastly - Dan Elgar's the man to learn batting from (for an opener atleast). He bats ugly, but he does the work required of an opener - stick around and tire out the opposition team so that the rest of the team gets a chance to play. Maybe crude, but very effective. Lets hope we can train our openers under him!

India vs SA - 3rd test. Time for a change in plans?

I remember discussing England's disastrous Ashes tour of Australia (2017-18) and saying " No matter what, India wouldn't fare like this on a tour. They would show far more spirit and put up a good fight". Well, well - I was quite wrong. The India tour to SA has reaffirmed that we travel badly and that we make the same basic mistakes whenever we tour. 0-2 down and the third test is looming large.
The selection mistakes (Rahane left out so far, Bhuvi left out in the 2nd test). mistakes in tactics and mistakes from players notwithstanding, we were thoroughly outplayed. To give credit to Kohli, he chose an aggressive 6 batsmen strategy (as against a safer 7 batsmen) in the hope that bowlers would pick up 20 wickets and give us a chance to win. We did pick 20 wickets in each test, but so did the opposition - only they scored more! So, what are the things India should do different in the 3rd Test?
1. 7 batsmen (including the keeper)? This is one scenario in which Rahane and Sharma both get to play. With Dinesh Karthik being the most likely keeper (and batting at 7), India will play 4 bowlers (Ashwin + 2 regular fast bowlers + Hardhik - which will become 8 batsmen and 3.5 bowlers) or maybe drop Hardhik and get another regular fast bowler. This is a 'safe' bet - with this combo, India will most likely not lose, but will definitely not win! This is a combination where chance of losing is 25-30% IMHO.
2. 6 batsman - but without Pujara! This one is scary to even think of, but might be necessary. Pujara is out of form and worse - is getting out in the worst possible ways ( 2 run-outs on the same test). Getting Rahane in for him will not impact runs very badly, yet give Rahane and Sharma another shot at SA. With 5 bowlers, we will have space for Hardhik too. So, that makes it 7 batsmen still with 4.5 bowlers if you might want to call it that (or maybe 6.5 batsmen with 5 bowlers). With this combo, we have a decent chance of winning but an equally good chance of losing : 50% chance of losing, but maybe 30% chance of winning.
So, what will India , rather Virat Kohli do now? Tough call. Whatever decision he takes, we will unfortunately be judging him based on the results of the third test!